Belgium have not beaten England since 1936, in Brussels. Belgium have never won in England. The odds are therefore, obviously, against them winning this evening. (Although odds seem to be dropping as I write, 4-1 from 6-1). But stranger things have happened. Five of the likely Belgium team play in the Premier League (with two more about to sign up in the next few days) so the team won’t be too full of surprises.
A look at the respective ages of the sides shows that England only have two players who are under the age of 25 (Danny Welbeck 21 and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 18), while Belgium only have two who are older than that age (Thomas Vermaelen 26 and Guillaume Gillet 28, the latter playing by accident). The average ages of the sides are Belgium 24 and England 27. That might make a difference but with the match being at Wembley, England have that advantage. Let’s have a look at the likely line-ups:
England: (4-4-1-1): Hart; Johnson, Terry, Cahill, Cole; Milner, Parker, Gerrard, Oxlade-Chamberlain; A Young; Welbeck.
Belgium: (4-3-1-2): Mignolet; Gillet, Vermaelen, Kompany (Simons), Vertonghen; Witsel, Fellaini, Dembélé; Hazard; Mirallas, Mertens.
The Belgium side does not look like a side that could be embarrassed, although if Vincent Kompany drops out and is replaced by veteran Timmy Simons, then I would be concerned about that make-shift defence. In midfield, although I rate Moussa Dembélé, I would have reunited Steven Defour with his old Standard Liege midfield partners, Axel Witsel and Marouane Fellaini. The probable line-up risks being out-muscled by the England midfield.
Belgium’s main hope lies in their nimble forwards getting among the ageing England back-line. It’s a deliberate policy by Marc Wilmots and one that has to be admired. Players like Dries Mertens and Eden Hazard are fast, or rather, as I said on talkSPORT’s ZooTime recently, “fast enough”.
If Scot Parker fails a fitness test, then a midfield of Jordan Henderson and Steven Gerrard might struggle. Then again, if there is no Kompany, England could run riot. On that point though, I have it on good authority that Vincent’s dad says the boy is up for playing.
So what will the result be? If Kompany plays, I take Belgium to win 2-1. If he’s not there, the fur will fly and it could end 3-3. Whatever happens, it should be a good game – as it’s much more than a friendly for Belgium.